Thirdly, the final phase when supply and distribution will be on a relatively settled basis with the required supply of products available for shipment to the nearest consuming areas. It is expected that the six months ending 31st March, 1945, will include the transition from the first to the second phase and o the beginning of the the third phase. An accurate analysis of tanker movements during this second phase is particularly difficult; it will include the movement of substantial quantities of crude oil from the East Indies to Japan for refining, and it is probable that a number of tankers will be employed for the dual purpose of delivering finished products from Japan to the bases in the S.E.