TOP SECRET 1. THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF YEAR FOR THE SOVIET UNION DELIBERATELY TO START A WAR IN THE PERIOD 1951-1953. THE COMMITTEE considered a draft reporto reviewing the most likely time of year for the Soviet Union to start a war in the period 1951-1953 should it be its intention to do so. CAPTAIN HILKEN said that the Committee had already stated their View that if war broke out during this period it would most likely occur by accident rather than as 2 long termed Soviet planned project. While the draft report was based on an assumption that it was the intention of the Soviet Union deliberately to start a war, it was largely speculative, and he doubted whether, in fact, the Soviet leaders would work out their plans on the lines envisaged.