Minutes of the Fifty-seventh Meeting of the Committee (Deputy Directors) Held in Conference Room "G", at the Ministry of Defence, S.W.I, on Wednesday, 7th June, 1950, at 11.00 A.Mt

SECRET The Committee took note that following consideration of their previous report≠ on the Chinese Communist threat in the Far East and South-East Asia, the Chiefs of Staff had instructedØ the Committee to carry out an examination of period of warning of an impending attack on Hong Kong by the Chinese Communists which might be expected in present circumstances, and also of the suggestion that the Russians might deliberately create trouble in Hong Kong in order to make us withdraw forces from Malaya. MR. BRAIN, referring to paragraph 5 of the Annex to the report by the Joint Intelligence Committee (Far East) in which it was stated that if the Chinese invaded the Colony there would be a very grave risk of a world war, said that the Foreign Office maintained their view that the likelihood of a direct military attack on the Colony was extremely remote, but even so, doubted the truth of that statement. The Chinese would be almost certain to initiate action to regain Hong Kong by legal means through international organisations before putting themselves in the wrong by a direct attack. COMMANDER SHEPPARD agreed with Mr. Brain's views but suggested that the possibility of a military attack could not be entirely ruled out since the situation might arise where by the security position in Hong Kong reached such a state that Communist troops might enter to "restore order". COLONEL STONEY referring to paragraph 2(d) of the Annex to the report, said that although the Chinese Communist armed forces were becoming more efficient and had benefited by Russian advice and assistance, there was no evidence that the Chinese Communist Army was becoming progressively better equipped. As regards paragraph 13 of the report on the warning of hostile intentions, he said that the War Office considered that, taking into account the troops in the Canton area at present, many preliminary activities would be required before the Chinese Communists could mount an assault on Hong Kong. In particular, air and ground reconnaissances would be required, special training of troops instituted, supporting arms moved up and dumps formed, and high quality troops and experienced Commanders brough in. This would take several weeks and might be expected to be reported. He therefore suggested that a telegram should be sent to the Joint Intelligence Committee (Far East) for their views on these points, for use in the preparation of the report to the Chiefs of Staff. MR. YOUNG said that economic factors had been largely omitted from the reports before the Committee and, as these were so important, he suggested that reference should be made to them in the report to the Chiefs of Staff. There was general agreement with these suggestions. THE COMMITTEE:- (1) Instructed the Joint Intelligence Staff to prepare a draft report on the lines required by the Chiefs of Staff. (2) Instructed the Secretary to send a telegram to the Joint Intelligence Committee (Far East) in the light of their discussion≠ ≠ J.I.C. (50) 1/9 (Final). Ø C.O.S. (50) 83rd Meeting, Minute 7. ≠ Sent as DEF 403. -2-