Minutes of the Nineteenth Meeting of the Committee, Held in Conference Room "G", at the Ministry of Defence, S.W.I, on Friday, 17th February, 1950 at 10.45 a.m.

TOP SECRET COMMANDER THOMPSON said that the Joint Intelligence Staff had not recast the draft report on the lines suggested by the War Office since it was considered that, as so amended, it would limit the application of the report to the present day. Whereas it was true that today it might appear to the Russians that the Western Powers would initiate atomic warfare on the outbreak of war, future developments in the field of atomic energy, particularly concerning the Hydrogen bomb must lead to increasing public uncertainty in the West concerning the use of such weapons. The Soviet leaders might well appreciate that political considerations might prevent the military authorities from proceeding with plans to initiate the use of atomic weapons. The report did not discuss our decision to use atomic bombs and our vulnerability was an important factor against our using them. The War Office amendment would, he suggested, detract emphasis from the point that should the attitude of the West lead to the Soviet use of atomic bombs, these bombs would be likely to be concentrated against the United Kingdom. In discussion, it was pointed out that any tendency by the Soviet leaders to estimate that political considerations might prevent the use of the atomic bomb by the Western Powers would almost certainly be offset in the Russian view by the fact that the Western Powers were so markedly inferior in conventional weapons, and had concentrated so much effort on the production of atomic weapons, that political considerations would not be allowed to interfere with their employment of the only effective weapon of attack against Russia at their disposal. There was therefore general agreement with the terms of the amendments suggested by the War Office. 'X' In discussion, certain further amendments to the report and Annex were suggested. It was generally agreed that these should be incorporated by the Joint Intelligence Staff into a third revised draft report and circulated for clearance if possible by telephone. THE COMMITTEE:- Instructed the Joint Intelligence Staff to proceed as at 'X' above. -2-