Part II. Alternative Plans for Long-term policy. 1. The short-term plan set out in Part I of this Paper might be transformed into a long-term plan, providing for an offensive, from the North as well as the West, against our positions in the Middle East. 2. We consider such a change of plan likely if one of the following situations were to arise during the next few months: (a) If Germany decided that the conditions necessary for an attempt to invade the United Kingdom could not be realised this year.