Prospects of a German Collapse or Surrender Note by Sec. Covering U.S. J.I.C.206/1.

APPENDIX 1. Strategic Situation (a) Manpower Lack of combat-fit manpower constitutes the greatest over-all weakness in the German situation. The number of physically-fit young men remaining in the entire German population is already substantially less than the minimum requirements of the armed forces. Germany cannot replace further heavy losses of such personnel, and consequently cannot long maintain the fighting effectiveness of her combat units in the face of heavy attrition. Mobilization of the civilian labor forces is already virtually complete, and the importation of more foreign workers would not materially improve the situation and would increase the already grave peril they represent.