Enemy Reactions to Allied Capture of Elba. Note by Secretary

It must be pointed out, however, that the retention of the island is net vital to the enemy, unless his rail communications in ITALY are interrupted to the extent that his future strategy in central ITALY is dependent on obtaining supplies by sea. This stage has not yet been reached. 4. Enemy Reaction to Allied Landing. If he had appreciated that an attack was imminent and considered the retention of the island vital to his strategy, he would probably reinforce the island prior to D day. In our opinion, he would be likely to use the equivalent of one combat team.