2. The German oil position will remain critical until the new synthetic plants now in course of erection come into large scale production. This new production may begin to take effect in the middle of 1943. 3. Thereafter, provided that there is no large increase in military activity and no interference with sources of supply, that position may be expected progressively to improve, though Germany will be unable for a considerable time to meet in full both the requirements of the armed forces and civilian needs essential to the war effort.