German Strategy 1943 - Middle East Enquiry. Note by Secretary

no organised opposition with which we can get in touch and overthrow of regime not probable until our offensive against Italy has gone a good deal further than at present. Our evidence does not suggest threat to Italy itself would be unifying factor. 3. Paragraph 30. We consider Axis operations in North Africa fundamentally defensive and designed protect Italy from shock of complete Axis defeat in North Africa. There is evidence Axis nervous of possible effects such a shock. 4. Paragraph 33. We consider Germany must take seriously Allied threat to Balkans because landing there by even small Allied force would at least encourage local resistance by patriot forces and desire of Roumania and Bulgaria dissociate themselves from Germany; this coupled with air threat would imperil maintenance of supplies vital to Germany's war effort.