6. Such political evidence as we possess evinces a desire on the part of the Japanese to avoid unnecessary friction with Russia at any rate for the time being, in view of their interest at the moment in the south. 7. The attack by Japan against the U.S.A. and the British Empire has shown how dangerous it is to rationalise on Japanese policy. A surprise attack by Japan against Russia cannot, therefore, be ruled out. This, however, is an incalculable factor on which Intelligence throws no light. 8.