Sea, Land and Air Threat in Indian Ocean Area. Note by the Secretary

DRAFT TELEGRAM From: The War Office To: Commander-in-Chief, Middle East. MOST SECRET. Your 1/89493 dated 23rd April, 1942. Following from J.I.C. 1. Even if Ceylon captured by Japanese, unlikely they would attack land objectives in Persia, Arabia or East Africa so long as British Fleet remains in being in Indian Ocean and we hold Madagascar. Japanese strategy must be governed by fact that sooner or later they will have to face offensive action by U.S.A. Pacific Fleet, coupled with threat by our own reinforced Eastern Fleet, and by threat of growing allied strength in Anzac area.