7. affect her, in her enclosed waters and with her multiplicity of air bases. 5. In the East: Japan is likely to avoid a major fleet action She has a large force of ocean-going submarines and we believe that her policy will be to use her submarines for protection against the American fleet. The American fleet could only attack the Japanese by moving fleet bases further west. As a defensive measure, Japan is likely therefore to seek to occupy a chain of bases extending from New Guinea to the Samoan Islands to prevent the Americans from forestalling her.