(4)(D) disagreed in view of Japanese strategy up to the present. Any raids made would be contributory to achieving specific objectives and not merely to compel us to dissipate and disperse our forces. For instance, the Japanese raids might be for the object of (A) extending influence into Bengal, denying East Coast of India and harrassing shipping in Indian Ocean. (B) Neutralizing Aleutian Islands, Suggest two further conclusions (E) "War between Russia and Japan continues to appear probable particularly if Russian involvement in Europe offers opportunity", and (F) "Japanese occupation of Madagascan ports unlikely (See 8(B) below)".