in a position to interfere the Batum operation would be much more simple and satisfactory for the Axis. 4. There remains the possibility of an Axis attack on Turkey with the more limited objective of securing a bridgehead to include the Bosphorus and Izmir. The advantages to the Axis would be: (a) The Italian fleet might be got through for operations in the Black Sea. (b) The Axis would be able to establish an advanced base for operations in the spring against Syria, Iraq, or the Caucasus. (c) The Bosphorus and Izmir are all within Axis air cover from existing bases.