The Effect of the Russian Campaign on the Prospects of Invasion. Second Report by the J.I.C.

We think therefore that under circumstances most favourable to Germany the earliest date by which she could hope to break off offensive operations on the Russian front and begin to disengage forces for Invasion would be not less than three weeks from now (1st August) i.e. by the last week of August. 5. We are of the opinion that the large land and immense air forces required for invasion could not be withdrawn, re-equipped, concentrated and embarked in the West, nor the shipping and supply organisations marshalled, before the end of the first week of October at the earliest but, more probably, before the last week in October, by which time winter conditions are setting in.