Eastward Extension of the War in the Middle East. Note by Secy.

Para.8. We do not accept without further examination that Germans could maintain so large a number of troops through Anatolia as is given in para.8 our preliminary estimate would be that maximum of 8/10 divisions of which two or three might be mechanised could be maintained by rail or road through Anatolia. Para.10. That our whole Middle East position would dry up for lack of oil if Abadan were destroyed is a new proposition which must obviously have very considerable effect on our strategy. Hitherto our information has been that stoppage of oil supplies from Abadan though serious in convenience would be by no means fatal to our war effort in the Middle East and that supplies could be obtained from elsewhere.