Germany's stocks in the west are believed to be diminishing by the amount of the deficiency. The possible deficiency is large by reference to Germany's present estimated stocks and these estimates may contain a substantial margin of error in Germany's favour. Hence, if Roumanian supplies are interrupted, even for three months, a serious shortage might develop in particular products or in oil generally. This development is being assisted at present by the fact that Russian supplies are not coming forward according to schedule.