German Action in the Mediterranean Area. Memo. By the J.I.C.

9. The timetable of a further German move to the Syrian frontier cannot at present be forecast with any degree of exactitude, as it depends on a number of unknown factors. Tripoli. 10. An Axis advance eastwards from Tripoli would menace our recent conquests in Cyrenaica and threaten eventual invasion of Egypt. Any major Axis success in this area would inflict a serious blow to our prestige and immobilise our reserves in Egypt. While fully realising the difficulties of terrain, climate, and supply it would be dangerous to underestimate the possibilities of a German counter stroke against Cyrenaica as soon as sufficient German forces are acclimatised.