Appreciation for a European War. Political Setting. Note by the Secretary

France, (ii) an attack on France by Italy or (iii) an attack by Germany on one of her eastern or south-eastern neighbours. The relative probability of these three hypotheses can only be a matter of conjecture. But whereas hypothesis (i) would necessarily involve this country, hypothesis (ii) need not necessarily do so unless Germany came to the assistance of Italy, while hypothesis (iii) seems the least likely to involve this country; for, even if Germany, of the various courses of action open to her in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, were to attack Poland or the Soviet Union, to which countries France is bound by treaty engagements, or even Roumania, it is highly improbable that France, without a guarantee of assistance from us, would go to the assistance of the victim of Germany's aggression.