Minutes of the Sixty-first Meeting of the Committee, Held in Conference Room "G", at Tho Ministry of Defence, S.W.I. . on Thursday. 15th June. 1950. at 10.30 a.m.

4. CHINESE NATIONALIST AIR FORCE. SECRET REAR-ADMIRAL LONGLEY-COOK referred to a letter from the Chairman, Joint Intelligence Committee, Far East, to the Chairman of the Committee asking whether the Committee had any evidence that the Chinese Nationalists were in possession of ex-United States jet aircraft. Copies of this letter had, he understood, been circulated to the Committee and he suggested that the Air Ministry should be invited to advise the Foreign Office how to reply. AIR VICE MARSHAL OGILVIE-FORBES said that he would look into this question and inform the Foreign Office accordingly. THE COMMITTEE:- Invited the Air Ministry to advise the Foreign Office regarding the nature of the reply that should be sent to the Chairman, Joint Intelligence Committee, Far East. 5. INVASION OF THE UNITED KINGDOM. TOP SECRET (Previous Reference:- Reference J.I.C. (49) 42 (Final Revise)). REAR-ADMIRAL LONGLEY-COOK recalled that when the Chiefs of Staff had considered+ the Committee's report≠ on the invasion of the United Kingdom, on the assumption that war broke out during the period 1949/50, the Committee had been instructed to prepare a further report in July 1950. In arriving at the conclusion in their previous report that the Soviet Union would not be able to invade the United Kingdom in a war in 1949/50, the two main considerations had been that the Soviet Union would not possess adequate sea and air lift for such an operation or be able to achieve the requisite air superiority. As regards the first of these considerations, the Admiralty had given preliminary consideration to the possibility of the Soviet Union being able to provide sufficient sea and air lift during 1951 and it appeared that it would be unlikely to be able to do so. There were a number of factors, however, which required to be carefully considered; in particular, the extent to which the ships of the Western European countries could escape to the West if Western Europe collapsed quickly under a Soviet attack. In this connection, consideration might be given to the possibility of issuing a standing order to the effect that, in the event of war breaking out, all ships of the Western European nations should immediately sail to the West if they possibly could. As regards the second consideration, the air situation had changed considerably since the previous report was prepared, and it might be that a fresh examination would conclude that the Soviet Union might be able to obtain air superiority over the invasion area. AIR VICE MARSHAL OGILVIE-FORBES agreed that the air situation would require re-examination, particularly in the light of the latest estimates of the numbers of jet fighters which the Soviet Union would possess at the end of the present year. + C.O.S. (49) 106th Meeting, Minute 3. ≠ J.I.C. (49) 42 (Final Revise). -2-