TOP SECRET 3. We estimate that no substantial Communist forces are likely to arrive in the Canton area before the beginning of September, or before the end of September at the borders of the Leased Territories. From the military point of view it is unlikely that any possible threat to the Colony would arise until the greater part of Kwantung province has been brought under control. This is unlikely to be effective before the latter half of October. Naval situation. 4. The Nationalist blockade in the Yangtze continues to be effective, though one small British coaster under Chinese charter (S.S.